Techniques involving Data Science and Artificial Intelligence are being engaged in the geosciences to address the difficulties related to proper data integration during oil and gas exploration activities considering potentials in new frontier basins with insufficient data. Therefore, this study constructs a data-driven methodology for a geological evaluation of the black organic-rich shales of the Irati Formation to predict the reservoirs suitability for the co-development of shale gas and CO2 geological storage in the Paraná Basin. The proposed methodology involves a set of data mining techniques combined with Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolations while using organic geochemical parameters and well information as inputs. The workflow consists of six stages: data collection, data understanding, data cleaning, data preparation, data mining, and spatial data analysis. The above-stated processes aided to describe the quality and content of the datasets, put the data in the required formats, correct missing data issues, select the final working datasets, define the analytical variables, implement ad-hoc classification tests, and apply machine learning algorithms such as Simple Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, K-means, K-Nearest Neighbor, and Support Vector Machine. The approach also assisted the IDW interpolations and geo-reference of the machine learning predictions for the final assembly of the prospect maps of the Irati Formation based on shale gas production and CO2 geological storage. The results show that data-driven methodologies can effectively eliminate issues related to short budgets by reducing the time to complete geological evaluations and entire research projects in new frontier basins. The ad-hoc classification testing presents preliminary but valuable insights into the source rock potential within the Irati Formation. The machine learning algorithms with the best performance based on the research focus were K-means and Support Vector Machine. The study identifies areas that comply with the technical and environmental requirements for the co-development of shale gas and CO2 geological storage in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. It presents an approximated value of 11,250 km2 for the area suitable for the combined shale gas production and CO2 geological storage perspective and another 10,500 km2 recommendable for CO2 geological storage.

  • Stephanie SanMartín-Cañas, Richardson Abraham, Colombo Tassinari
  • stephanie.sanmartin@usp.br, abrahamrichardson@usp.br, ccgtassi@usp.br